Number crunching

£12 billion on a woefully shambolic, utterly ineffective, track and trace system, when the one thing most of the scientific/medical community were agreed upon in March was that Track, Trace and Isolate was going to be key to stopping, or at least slowing, the spread of the virus.

£12 billion.

It's a tricky number to get your head round. Just another huge figure, lost among many other huge figures of government spending. So let's have a go...

£12 billion is more than the entire annual budget for England's GP services.

£12 billion is at least 50% more than the entire annual budget for the Ministry of Justice. 

£12 billion is the combined annual budget of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO), Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) (2018-19 figures).

So, it would seem that one could potentially do quite a lot with £12 billion. Which makes it all the more impressive that we* have managed to implement a system that only contacts at best 80% of those who test positive, and only reaches 60% of their contacts.

Just for fun, I wondered what else we could have done with those sums of money.

There are approximately 43 million people of working age (16-64) in this country. 

If we employed 1 in every 1000 people as contact tracers, on a full-time salary of £20,000 per annum, that would still only cost £860 million. But they'd need computers, phone-lines and internet connections, so let's give them a budget for equipment and services of another £3000 each, which would take us almost to a whole billion pounds. Employing 0.1% of the working population, and equipping them, is still less than 10% of the sum the government has spent**. Given our current rates are 23,000 positive tests per day, each of our 43,000 newly-employed contact tracers would average approximately one person with a positive test every two days. They could spend a lot of quality time supporting that covid-infected person, meticulously noting their movements, and following up their contacts.

Let's not forget the development of the "world-beating" Track and Trace App either though. I mean, it must be expensive to develop a new App mustn't it? Let's just pause and consider the most expensive computer games ever made. BioWare spent the equivalent of $227 million developing Star Wars: The Old Republic. Or £175 million. And, married as I am to a Bear in the computer games industry, I can assure you that big computer games are really quite complicated. But even assuming that developing a phone App that hardly works is as difficult as a Massive Multiplayer Online Role-Playing Game, it's still a drop in the £12 billion ocean.

So, even after employing 0.1% of the country as contact-tracers, and developing an App to rival the world's most expensive PC game, we've still got a little less than £11 billion left to spend on more lab technicians, or reagents, or test kits, or courier services, or databases, or statisticians, or doctors, or nurses, or support schemes that allow those isolating to be able to afford to do so. Maybe we could even try feeding some children, or providing enough IT provision that children can receive the level of remote teaching previously reserved only for those who could afford a private education.

But we haven't done any of those things. Makes you wonder where all the money has gone doesn't it?

* It genuinely sticks in my throat to use "we" in that sentence, as though most of that "we" have had anything to do with this obscene waste of taxpayer's money. The Tory government hold all responsibility for this. All of it. 

** Obviously this is a bit of a cheat, as I haven't included employers NI contributions or any of the administrative overheads of employing people, but it gives you an idea of the sums involved.

10-Day Challenge: Day #10

Well, here I am at the end of my 10-day challenge to write short, positive blog posts in an attempt to force myself to see the good in life even in times of stress and distress.

Has it worked?

I wouldn't say I have become entirely upbeat, but I have definitely forced myself to make an effort not to wallow as much as perhaps is normal. There isn't exactly much reading-between-the-lines required for anyone to spot that there have been down days, even in the span of only 10 days. But I have managed to find one bright spot each day, even if that solitary bright spot is cheese. Cheese can be surprisingly therapeutic - as evidenced today by my making a special outing at lunchtime to the only shop within easy range that sells cheese suitable for raclette. By which means I have given myself and LittleBear something to look forward to at the weekend*.

But having molten cheese to look forward to is not my happy thought for the day, it's just a nice coincidence. 

I am not sure whether this technically counts as a happy thought, but it is certainly a moment of self-awareness, and a progression from the foul mood of yesterday. It all starts with a meme that I saw, and (for the second time in the last 5 years) posted on Facebook.

I have the innate ability to imagine situations that haven't even occurred and get fucking furious about them. I basically think myself into a bad mood.

It was true five years ago, and it's true now. I spend far too much time inside my own thoughts, getting myself more and more angry and upset about things that exist only inside my own head. And, aside from the minor impact of every news article I might look at, yesterday was largely down to "thinking myself into a bad mood". With a certain amount of effort; stern internal talking-to; and a clear-eyed look at my lovely husband, son and friends, I managed to talk myself back into a more reasonable frame of mind.

And for me, that's a massive achievement. I feel genuinely proud of myself for getting out of the funk I'd got myself into. And maybe, just maybe, the previous nine days of making an active choice to see the good in life did help.

* It is an enduring mystery to me and LittleBear that BigBear is not a huge fan of raclette. We choose not to question this position too closely, as it simply means more cheese for us.

10-Day Challenge: Day #9

I have been seriously tempted to scrap today's entry. To simply write, "life is shit and I have nothing positive to say." But instead, I'm going to try and be honest about that, and to try and be honest about the struggle to find something, no matter how small, to be happy about. 

I don't want this Challenge to turn into some kind of Pollyanna-ish fa-la-la about life being fully of fluffy kittens and joy, when the very point is that it isn't, but that even when that is the case, it is possible to find something, anything, that might raise a smile, or perhaps provide comfort.

And today, that has been harder than usual. I have been bad-tempered more or less from the moment I awoke until now. I have hated more or less everything. I have had arguments in my head with more or less everyone. I have not been a joyous person, and have almost certainly not provided my LittleBear with a happy half-term Tuesday.

But...

My LittleBear is a dear, sweet, soft bundle of cuddles, and despite my crabbiness, he has been funny, and gentle and entertaining for most* of the day.

And even though life isn't full of fluffy kittens and joy, there is this...

 

And finally, this is the thought I genuinely had as I cooked dinner and wondered what I had to feel upbeat about. I have five types of cheese in the fridge and have eaten three of them today. And, honestly, some days, having plenty of cheese available is the level of positive I can manage.

* He's eight. I may love him dearly, but I'm not so blinkered as to claim that he's been perfect for a whole thirteen hours.

10-Day Challenge: Day #8

Today's moment of good cheer is the extraordinary power of everyday people saying, "enough" in large enough numbers that they make a difference.

You would perhaps have to have been living under a rock not to have noticed there is a certain amount of kerfuffle over the fact that 340 MPs voted against providing free school meals to children living in poverty through this half-term and the Christmas holiday. Apparently, this would be a mere sticking-plaster and therefore unhelpful. I don't know if any of these MPs have ever had a minor, bleeding injury, but there are times when a sticking-plaster is exactly what's needed. In this case, no, it should not be necessary for the government to provide food for children. No, it should not be acceptable that 1.4 million children are in danger of not receiving enough food. No, as a country, we don't want our population to have to need vouchers to provide enough food for their families. And yet. Here we are. Maybe it has something to do with a global pandemic following hot on the heels of 10 years of austerity? 

However, this is supposed to be a positive light shining in the darkness, not a political polemic.

The positive today is just how many cafes, restaurants, charities and individuals have stepped forward to make sure none of the children who need food are going to go without. 

My own village swung rapidly into action, a volunteer group contacted the heads of the three schools (Infant, Junior and Secondary), discovered how much money was required to fund meals for their in-need pupils through half-term, and decided to ask the people of the village to step up. Within 12 hours of bank account details being published, £2,375 of the £3,100 needed had been donated.

Meanwhile, the local bakery is offering no-questions-asked free sandwiches for children's lunches throughout this week. The local branch of the Salvation Army has more food than they can give away and is redirecting it to other areas. They're also running a "Pop-Up Pantry", allowing people who need help to come along and pay only what they can afford, or nothing at all, for essential groceries.

This is not something unique to my village, it is a story being repeated over the length and breadth of the country, as good people refuse to sit back and see others suffer.

These are the people I want to share a country with. These are the people who can stand up and make a difference; who can reshape the future to reflect a kinder, gentler, more humane world than our elected representatives seem to see.

We can make the world a better place.

10-Day Challenge: Day #7

There are advantages to being a football coach. Advantages that go beyond having my car turned into a mobile kit-room, or my spare bedroom housing spare sets of kit for four different age groups, or turning out several times a week in almost inevitable rain through the coldest and most miserable months of the year.

One of those advantages is the occasional day where the sun shines, and we can get ten small boys together for a friendly match, and they can spend a morning running themselves ragged and hoofing the ball at each other without a care in the world.

The joy of children is a wonderful thing. 

The joy of a sweetly struck ball is a wonderful thing. 

LittleBear in action

How could I not find the positive in sunshine, football and small boys?

10-Day Challenge: Day #6

Today is.... <drum-roll>... half term!

That's right, we've made it all the way through a full seven weeks of school. Seven weeks in which no child in LittleBear's school had a positive covid-19 test. Seven weeks in which no class in LittleBear's school had to be sent home to isolate. Seven weeks in which LittleBear was able to receive some actual, genuine teaching, surrounded by his friends.

If that's not something to feel positive about in these times, I don't know what is.

And to celebrate this momentous occasion, what did we do? Absolutely nothing. It was great. 

I say "nothing", but LittleBear and I have started a "Half-Term Tournament" of board games, taking it in turns to chose the next game. Taking a leaf out of the newly-restarted Six Nations tournament, we are awarding 3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw, a bonus point for a thumping victory and a loser's bonus point for a narrow defeat. LittleBear has cruised to an early lead, to nobody's surprise. 

Meanwhile, since I couldn't really be bothered to cook, and the next grocery delivery isn't until tomorrow, we had takeaway curry for dinner. Which involves ordering on my laptop, paying by Paypal, and then cycling down into the village to pick it up from outside the front of the restaurant. And as I peddled home in the dwindling twilight I realised how incredibly lucky I am to be able to do that. To have the money to casually order a takeaway on a whim, to have a well-organised local restaurant that I trust, to be able to collect my meal by bicycle, to have a loving little family to share it with, to have security, and comfort and safety.

Today was definitely a day to count my blessings.

10-Day Challenge: Day #5

After two days in which it was a genuine struggle to force myself to look for and find the positive in the day, today has been so much easier. I even have more than one positive! And though it is tempting to keep one in reserve for tomorrow, in case I have a bad day, I'm going to blow it all today and make myself find a new positive tomorrow. Which is a bit of a high-risk strategy, but feels like keeping to the spirit of my plan.

So my first positive for the day is the immense power of friendship, and the importance of maintaining connections, of responding, and of reaching out. I took an hour and a half off work and I met some friends for a coffee outside our lovely local cafe. We mostly wore masks, except for the actual coffee-drinking part, and we just had a chance to sit and talk. And it was lovely. I had nearly turned the invitation down, as I struggle to justify taking time off work for anything other than looking after LittleBear during school holidays. But sometimes cementing the bonds of friendship matters more than an over-developed sense of responsibility towards my job. And it was H's birthday, and to be able to be with her and share a drink, even on a damp bench on a chilly-but-sunny October morning was worth it.

Having been reminded how much it lifted me up that my friends had reached out and invited me for coffee, even though they knew I would almost certainly decline, I in turn reached out to other people in my life today, and was rewarded with warmth and friendship in return. And I was reminded that as tired as I am, and as loathe to stick my head out of my nest and make an effort, and as hard as I sometimes find interacting with people, the same is true for a lot of other people too. There is nothing to be gained from walling myself off and then wondering why people aren't reaching out to me. As much as I need people to smile and offer the hand of friendship, others need that too, and sometimes I need to be the smile and the proferred hand.

Meanwhile, I was rescued from my despair over the government's attitude to providing meals for children living in poverty by the response of large swathes of the population. Not only have multiple councils up and down the land pledged to provide meals for children during the school holidays, but cafes, restaurants and charities all over the country are stepping in and offering their services to provide free food through the holidays. There are people who do care. Not because they're trying to score political points, not because they're trying to win re-election, but because they have been moved to act for the good of those less fortunate than themselves.

On which similar note, I've now reminded myself I have a third thing to be positive about. Three things! On one day! I was enormously heartened to read that football fans from a variety of clubs (included the beloved Burnley) had balked at the idea of paying £15 to watch one football match on a pay-per-view basis at the weekend and had decided instead to give that sum to their local foodbanks. There is no greater sacrifice for a football fan than missing a chance to watch their team. That so many fans chose not only to miss a match as a protest at the price being asked, but then didn't keep their money to themselves in a time of hardship, but gave it to those suffering greater hardship is another sign of the number of genuinely good people there still are in the country.

Life is about friendship, about community, about caring, about supporting each other, lifting each other up, helping each other. Our government may be failing us, but there is still hope when each of us little people link together, forge bonds, and make life better one tiny act at a time.